The Breakdown of our League
So this is the first year of our keeper league. We have had this league going since 2016, and many of us have played in leagues together before this. We decided to make the change to keeper at the end of last season. This works out for just about everyone except for me. I finished second to last on pure luck and my best bet at a keeper would be Damien Williams. Regardless, draft day is here and it is time to sack up and start fresh this season. Here is a run down of what I am looking at. I will also post the results later this week.
Our league is a 10 man PPR league
First two rounds of the draft are ordered last place to first from last year. (As second to last, I get 2nd pick and 12th pick)
If you keep one player, that is your first round pick. If you keep two players, they count as your first and second round picks.
Starting the 3rd round, we go from last place to first place and snake draft.
We can trade draft picks, but so far nobody has yet this year.
Here are the Keepers
Don’t ask why some of these seem so stacked. There were some questionable trades, and some lucky draft picks last year. Here are the order of the keepers. These go from last place of last year, down to first place.
Ben: Michael Thomas and Davante Adams
Collin: Christian McCaffrey and DeAndre Hopkins
Jarred: None (Maybe JuJu Smith-Schuster, Gametime decision)
Josh: Le’Veon Bell and James Connor
Matt: Saquon Barkley and David Johnson
Jay: Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley
Jim: Alvin Kamara and Odell Beckham Jr
Ethan: Julio Jones and Nick Chubb
As I go through my potential picks, I will look at who is available, what my thoughts are, and why I choose my pick.
The First Round
For starters, I did consider keeping Damien Williams, but chose not to for a good reason. If iI keep him he will take the spot of my first pick where I could take Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce, or several other people. I like my odds of being able to grab one of them, and then draft Damien Williams with my second or third pick and put myself in a better position. Note that after my first pick, there will only be one other pick before I pick again. Maybe two if Jarred does not keep JuJu.
Since Ben is keeping Michael Thomas for his for his first pick, my second pick will be the first draft pick this year. The top of the board is pretty clear for this pick but I still have some good options available. Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Joe Mixon are all available. If Jarred does not keep JuJu, he will be there as well. Drafting a tight end as my first pick does not seem like a sensible option. I think Kelce will have a great year along with the rest of Kansas City, but Hill might have a higher upside with the team.
Knowing that I will at least have two out of the first 4 picks, if not 2 out of the first 3, I will definitely take one of the Kansas City players first. I like JuJu if he is available, but I have another Steelers player in mind at a later round that I think will do well. I will probably take Hill first.
For my second pick, lets assume Jarred kept JuJu. If he didn’t and drafted someone else, Nate would probably grab him anyways. This means that out of Travis Kelce, Joe Mixon, Antonio Brown and Dalvin Cook, only one of them is gone from the other pick. I will assume that somebody grabs Kelce, but if not I would pass again. Runningbacks are gold in this league and with most of them gone from keepers, I need to grab one fast. Between Cook and Mixon, I would prefer to take Mixon.
The Start of the Snake
The third round will be the first round where everybody picks. I will have the second pick in this round (22nd overall). After my last pick, Jarred and Nate both have picks and Ben has the first in the third round. I am assuming that this clears Kelce if he wasn’t already gone. If he is still there, I have to take him now. Dalvin Cook and Antonio Brown are likely gone as well. Here is where I would grab Damien Williams if I can. Remember, runningbacks are gold. If he is gone, and neither Cook or Brown are available, then I will likely take Mike Evans. Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen are good options as well, but they have the same bye week as Hill.
Here is where it gets much more difficult to predict who will be available, so I will simply list guys I like in each round.
4th Round (Pick 39)
If he is still available, I like the looks of Chris Carson here. He has some upside as a RB, but I still have a receiver slot to fill, so if Cooks or Edelman are available, I would pick them. Derrick Henry haunted me all of last season so I won’t even consider him.
5th Round (Pick 42)
If I get a decent wide receiver in the 4th round, I would look at Deshaun Watson here. Risk for injury, but major upside with the receiving core the Texans have built. I usually prefer to hold off on quarterback, so I may look to Mark Ingram or Kenny Golladay for a flex player.
6th Round (Pick 59)
Here is where I will get a little risky and pull someone from deep. By now, tight ends are starting to go. If Ben already has a tight end I will wait until my next pick. If he doesn’t, I am taking Vance McDonald here. Call me crazy, but I don’t trust him to still be there by pick 79 with an average draft position of 82. If I wait, I will take D.J. Moore or Tarik Cohen.
7th Round (Pick 62)
If I didn’t wait for McDonald, then I will look again for Cohen or Moore. If neither are available, then maybe Baker Mayfield if I didn’t take Watson in the fifth round. Other options may be Tevin Coleman or Allen Robinson.
8th Round (Pick 79)
Now we are getting deep and I have no idea who to expect will still be here. Christian Kirk if he is available, but I doubt he will be. Will Fuller and Sterling Shepard are players who have done well for me in the past, when they can stay healthy. I would probably take either of them.
9th Round (Pick 82)
I doubt Duke Johnson will keep an ADP around 87 with the injury to Lamar Miller, but if he does, guarantee I take him this round, if not the round before. If not, Jordan Howard should get some good goal line work with the Eagles.
10th Round (Pick 99)
From the 10th round on, it is kind of a crap shoot. Hopefully one of the guys I pick does well but it is hard to know. I will grab a kicker and defense as I see fit based on when everyone else starts to grab them towards the end. I do have some players that I am watching through the later rounds that I will be drafting if I can. Most of them I know very little about and will most likely be looking up depth charts with seconds to spare before by clock runs out.
For wide receivers, I am watching Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Dante Pettis. I also wouldn’t mind getting Devin Funchess. He fell off in Carolina, but his one year contract with the Colts means he needs to prove himself. I also like the looks of Michael Gallup and Tyrell Williams.
For running backs, these are mostly relying on the unfortunate event that someone gets injured. Jaylen Samuels performed almost as well as Connor last year when Bell held out, he just didn’t get the starting position. I wouldn’t mind him incase they split the workload more. Theo Riddick was a greeat pass catcher out of the backfield with Detroit, so if he carries this over to Denver, he has upside in our PPR league.
I also wouldn’t mind grabbing a backup TE and QB. These could be great trade-bait later on. My main thought is Sam Darnold. I expect them to come out looking like a brand new team with their new additions, inculding LeVeon Bell. However, if Trubisky is available late, then he would be a preferred choice. If T.J. Hockenson is available late, I wouldn’t mind taking him. Being a league of Detroit fans though, he will probably go for that reason alone.